Boeing 787 - Seattle to North Charleston Air Service For Durability Test

 Boeing’s fourth flight-test 787 flies past Mount Rainier early 2011 (Boeing graphics)

The Boeing 787 composite material design is very new at its size scale. Though composites have been used in Formula 1 cars, business jets, the Space Shuttle and other applications, the Boeing 787 is the first to use it at this size scale, and in barrel configuration.

The Boeing 787 is the first to composites as the de Havilland Comet was the first with aluminum, though aluminum-use in similar size aircraft was more widespread before the introduction of the de Havilland Comet, mostly in bombers. On composites, we also had the American B-2 bomber though not in a tube with wings configuration.

Being 787 Dreamliner No. 23 arrives in San Antonio for upgrades (Boeing graphics)

Most of us are quite familiar with the de Havilland Comet's history and we hope and pray that the Boeing 787 Dreamliner will not follow the same pattern. It behooves the Boeing company to extensively and intensively test the durability of the Boeing 787, not only for its commercial survival but more for the safety of millions of future Boeing 787 passengers. But this is not to say that the Boeing 787 and other future mostly composite airliners like the Airbus A-350 are not safe. It is just making it more safe with more tests.

Boeing company should go beyond the FAA certification process by using the retained flight-test Boeing 787's,  like the Boeing 737 is utilized. It can use the retained flight-test Boeing 787's as an Air Ferry Service between Seattle, North Charleston, Chicago and other Boeing locations on a multi trip per day basis. Boeing can either form an airline, or lease it to an airline that will provide the service.

First 787 for delivery to launch customer ANA takes off 19Jan2011 Paine Field (Flight Global graphics)

By doing this, Boeing can collect a lot of data that can be used to optimize further the Boeing 787 design at a no-cost even profitable basis. These tests might even prove the Boeing 787 as a Boeing 757 replacement, and as proof for the use of the design on the future Boeing 797, the Boeing 737 replacement.

Will Embraer go B R I ?

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As Bombardier and COMAC try to find ways to have a synergestic partnership in "Bombardier and Comac work to define parameters of new tie-up"

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/03/31/354988/bombardier-and-comac-work-to-define-parameters-of-new.html

Embraer might be left out in the cold.

However, there are other possible partners that Embraer might court specifically the Russians and the Indians.

With Russia, it may follow the Bombardier-COMAC model with an E-jet/MS-21 cooperation-integration.

With India, it may do an E-jet New Generation in a joint development with an upsize of the Indian RTA project.

What's sure is the end of the Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the single aisle airliner sector.

Fokker 100 Next Generation - Prospects

Assuming that the 24,541 kgs Fokker 100 has a more weight efficient structure than the current 28,080 kgs Embraer 190, it might have good potential for a refresh and new production. The Fokker 100's empty weight is also lighter than the 25,100 kg Sukhoi Superjet 100, and the 26,270 kg ARJ21. However, it is heavier than the 23,179 kg CRJ1000 and the planned empty weight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet MRJ-90 of 22,600 kg that is part composite.

Given the above empty weight figures, the Fokker 100NG has the potential to be competitive in its sector even against the newer aircraft designs. As stated in the Fokker 100NG website http://ngaircraft.com/, the planned new aircraft will have

1. New engine - maybe P&W Purepower GTF or GE CF-34 or Rolls-Royce BR725
   
2. Winglet addition
3. New avionics
4. New Interior
5. Additional fuel capacity
   

The above features will be adopted to an existing Fokker 100 aircraft to come out with the prototype Fokker 100NG. This modification process may be offered to existing operators to refresh their fleets.



If ever NG Aircraft will reach the point where they will produce new-build Fokker 100NGs, they may also do the following to make the aircraft more competitive:

1. Aerodynamic cleanups like what Boeing is doing with the B737
   
2. Use of lighter and more durable materials like the Fokker-initiated Glare used in the A380
   

However, expensive new developments will impact negatively the price of new-build Fokker 100NGs.


If ever the Fokker 100NG will enter commercial service, it will be competitive in its market sector. Possible customers are present operators like KLM Cityhopper.

The big disadvantage that the Fokker 100NG has is on the corporate side. After building the Fokker 100NG prototype, it will then have to put online the production system. Then it will need a marketing infrastructure, then the service support. The last is at least in existence now.

EADS may see an opportunity in the Fokker 100NG and use its cash hoard to buy the aircraft company to complete its Airbus portfolio from 100 to 600 passenger capacity.