Possible Boeing Timeline For Airliner Development In 2020 To 2040

    Even though Boeing has been hard hit by the grounding of the 737 MAX caused by the two tragic incidents, worsely compounded by the chinese virus pandemic, Boeing still has to move forward with its Airliner Development.

Boeing 737 MAX9

    As Boeing itself has identified, it has an airliner model gap between the 737 model line, and the 787 and 767 model lines. This has been caused by the absence of a replacement for its 757 line, of which the replacement cycle for it has began. The 757 has been mostly replaced by the Airbus A321LR, and soon by the A321XLR.

Airbus A321LR

    Boeing also has no replacement in the area formerly occupied by the former MD95 that was renamed the Boeing 717, after the merger with McDonnell Douglas aircraft company. This area is now occupied by the Bombardier designed and built CS100 and CS300, that was sold to Airbus for $1 and became the Airbus A220.

Bombardier CSeries, now called Airbus A220

    Had the Boeing - Embraer merger proceeded, without the MAX and chinese
virus pandemic fiascos, the new Embraer E2 195 line could have competed with the A220 in this sector. This sector was also covered in the past by the earliest 737 versions before the 737 was made bigger at least twice. The 737 MAX7 still covers part of this sector but will not be as competitive versus the newer Bombardier designed and originally built CSeries.

Embraer E2 195

    Thus Boeing has two product line gaps to plug, the 757 replacement and the 717 replacement. Both the A321LR and the A220 lines has effectively reduced market shares in these areas.

    In my previous blog Boeing 737-11 NEW, Or Boeing 717 - The 757 Replacement I discussed a possible 757 replacement concept founded on the 737 MAX, with a NEW wing, longer fuselage and updated engines.

    Prior news items has talked of a possible new engines for the venerable Boeing 767, now solely produced as a Freighter or as a Refueling Tanker. Boeing has a contract for 179 KC-46 Pegasus Tankers with the US Air Force but there is probably low chances of reengining for these since it will muddle the maintenance logistics chain.

KC-46 Pegasus

    If Boeing gets enough orders for reengined 767 Freighters, it will most probably proceed. It may well turn the 767 as the C-47/DC-3 aircraft of the 21st century that lives on and on. If the economics is right, Boeing may even offer an airliner version of the 767, that has already a modernized cockpit based on the 787.

    My take on the Possible Boeing Timeline For Airliner Development In 2020 To 2040, from Board decision to first flight

    2022-2026    737-11 NEW, to evolve as the Boeing 717 as 757 replacement

    2024-2027    Reengined 767-XF

    2030-2035    737 Replacement, maybe Truss-Braced Wing with Open Rotor engine

Boeing Truss-Braced Wing Concept

    717 replacement will depend on Boeing's financial capacity after the MAX and chinese virus fiascos; or maybe revisit the merger of Boeing and Embraer. Or adopt the Mitsubishi SpaceJet for this area as Boeing and Mitsubishi are already partners in the 787.

 

Mitsubishi SpaceJet

Boeing 737-11 NEW, Or Boeing 717 - The 757 Replacement

    Boeing's present financial situation effectively closes the door to the launch of its NMA or New Midsize Airplane in the next 15 years.

Boeing's NMA or New Midsize Airplane Concept

    However, it must have to present a competitor to the Airbus' A321 LR and A321XLR models that has become the de facto B-757 replacement aircraft.

Airbus Launches The A321XLR

    Given Boeing's heavy debt load, mainly caused by the 737 MAX accident fiasco and the chinese virus pandemic, it will not have the financial capacity to invest on an all-new airliner to compete in its own-defined 'Midsize Airplane' sector. And there are also no new technologies that Boeing can integrate into an NMA or New Midsize Airplane that will leapfrog substantially the Airbus models that are now presently occupying this sector. Boeing needs at least 20% better efficiency to justify a $10+ billion investment on a clean sheet airliner.

Boeing 737 MAX9

    What Boeing needs now is a 757 Replacement that is founded on the 737 for the 'Midsize Airplane' sector.

Icelandair Boeing 757

 

     It must jump the gun on Airbus' solution, that is touted by the media, for Airbus to confront the then Boeing NMA or New Midsize Airplane concept study. And the 737 that has recently caused it much pain can now become its savior in the 'Midsize Airplane' sector.

Boeing 737 MAX10, soon to fly

 

    I call it the 737-11 NEW (New Engine and Wing). And evolve as the Boeing 717, as it diverges more from the 737 line. The Boeing's 757 replacement.

     The Boeing 717 will have these features: 

1. It will use an optimized 737 fuselage, with outward opening cargo doors with maximized cabin width via a 777X similar treatment. This will leverage the efficient 737 production line of Spirit AeroSystems thus reducing startup costs. Modifications can later be flowed back to MAX fuselages after testing and certification.

2. It will use an updated 777X composite wing design technology, optimized for the 717 configuration. Folding wingtips can also be adopted if it is economical in terms of airport slot costs. This can leverage the huge investment that Boeing has put into its Composite Wing Center plant in Everett.

3. Upgraded GE/Safran LEAP-1B or 1A engines to maintain commonality with the MAX or NEO supply chains. At this point, engine inserts are on time to be developed for better fuel efficiency and time on wing.

4. A 3rd AOA sensor or a virtual one to fulfill EASA requirement. The other 737 findings from the MAX recertification have to be provided solutions for in the 717.

5. Nominal specs would be a 4,000 NM range with a maximum of 240 passengers in a 2-class cabin. The 717 must not encroach into the 767 and 787 sectors, and maintain good economics for the 757 sector.

6. A 787 technology level cockpit will insure the 717's relevance into the 2030's.

 

The 717 designation was last used for the MD-95 that Boeing inherited when it took over the McDonnell Douglas company. It was also used as a designation for a pre cursor of the Boeing 707 - the KC-135 tanker.

Boeing 717, formerly MD-95

KC-135E Stratotanker, originally designated as 717-100

Basler Turbo BT-67

The Basler Turbo Conversions BT-67 is a remanufactured C-47 aircraft made by the Basler Turbo Conversions LLC company of Oshkosh, Wisconsin, USA. The C-47 remanufacturing into a Basler Turbo BT-67 includes a complete airframe overhaul, wing aerodynamic improvements, fuselage and wing structural strengthening, and the installation of new aircraft systems. All changes are covered by FAA STC certifications under extensive testing to FAR Part 25.^[1] Dozens of BT-67s are currently in service in the world's most remote areas, including the Polar regions, deserts and jungles.

Basler Turbo Conversions LLC

Basler Turbo Conversions LLC was formed in 1988 by Warren Basler. It is a sister company to Basler Flight Service, which was organized in 1957.^[2] Before Basler Turbo Conversions went into C-47 conversions, it operated Basler Airlines, a regional airline using C-47 piston-powered aircraft flying local patrons to resorts in Canada on the airline version, and automotive parts between Midwest factories with the cargo version.^[3] The Basler operation was a family business with Warren's wife Pat being active in all phases of the business.^[4]
Production of the Basler Turbo BT-67 began in the new 75,000 square foot facility in January, 1990 at Wittman Regional Airport in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. The first Basler Turbo BT-67 flew in 1990 with a new Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-67R turboprop engines and Hartzell Hartzell HC-B5MA-3/M11276^[5] five-blade metal propellers. Approval of the Supplemental Type Certificates (STCs) for the aircraft was issued by the FAA in February 1990.The base C-47 fuselage was lengthened by 40-inch plug forward of the wing.^[6]
In 1996, Jack Goodale, a Grand Rapids, Michigan aviation entrepreneur bought and invested heavily into the company.^[7] Basler founder and BT-67 designer Warren Basler died in a 1997 plane crash while filming the BT-67 from another plane during a marketing photo flight.^[8] Thomas R. Weigt retired in 2017 as Basler Turbo Conversions CEO, after serving as CEO for more than 20 years, and Randall Myers became CEO. Randall Myers was formerly Director of production, engineering and maintenance for Basler.
On average, the company completes two to three BT-67's per year, depending on the configuration ordered.^[9] As of January 2018, at least 63 Basler Turbo BT-67 aircraft have been produced by the Basler Turbo Conversions company.
Basler Turbo Conversions also supports the DC-3/C-47, with parts and an supplemental inspection program that can keep these airworthy well into the 100,000-hour range. The C-47 nicknamed "That’s All, Brother”, the leader of the formation that dropped thousands of American paratroopers into Normandy on D-Day, is again in flying condition after restoration by technicians at Basler Turbo Conversions.^[10] BTC has everything needed to build a brand new DC-3 from scratch, and under its FAA parts manufacturing authority, it now makes more than 8,000 DC-3/BT-67 parts.^[11]

Basler Turbo BT-67

The airframe is gutted of removable parts, steam cleaned and corrosion-protected; repaired and non-standard skeletal parts replaced.^[12] All new systems that are installed includes the Powerplant, Avionics, Electrical Systems, Hydraulic Systems, Autopilot system, Fuel system, Air conditioning, De-icing, Fire protection, Control quadrant, and others that are needed to be replaced.^[13]
The modifications and upgrades made under different FAA STC's results in the Basler Turbo BT-67, that compared to the base C-47 is:^[14]
• 35% more interior volume
• 43% more useful load
• 24% more speed @ 210 knots
• 76% more productivity
• Up to 100% more fuel capacity
• Lower stall speed
• Lower approach speed
• Fuel mileage equal at equal speeds
• Servo assisted ailerons^[15]
• New production disk brakes
• Stage III Noise Certification^[16]


Cargo / Transport

The original version of the Basler Turbo BT-67 was envisioned as a modernized transport aircraft. The BT-67 became more successful with different Air Forces that used it as a cargo, transport and parachute drop, firebombing, and cloud seeding aircraft, given the proven versatility of its forerunner C-47.^[17]


Gunship

Two Air Forces uses the Basler Turbo BT-67 as a CAS gunship - Colombia^[18] and El Salvador^[19]. The Fuerza Aérea Colombiana or FAC has its many BT-67 gunships fitted with a FLIR ball on the aircraft nose chin area. [[1]]

Sensors Equipped

Many Basler Turbo BT-67's has been acquired by geophysical survey companies, specially for Polar studies. They have installed sensors and electronics into the aircraft like radars, electromagnetic booms and "birds", and data links. The Alfred Wegener Institute of Germany has two of the most sensors-equipped BT-67's, the Polar 5 and Polar 6.^[20]

Operational History

Users of Basler Turbo BT-67 ^[21]


Air Forces:
Colombian Air Force, 25+ years in service
Royal Thai Air Force, 20+ years in service
El Salvadoran Air Force
Mauritania Air Force
Mali Air Force
Guatemalan Air Force
Colombian National Police


Survey Companies:

Alfred Wegener Institute
Bell Geospace
Spectrem Air Surveys
ALCI Aviation
Kenn Borek Air
CGG Geophysical Survey
Polar Research Institute of China
Airtec


Others:

Airborne Support - used in Gulf of Mexico oil spill cleanup using oil-dispersant^[22]
Aero Contractors
Cargo North


It was also used by:

US Air Force - with the 6th Special Operations Squadron^[23]
US Department of State
US Forest Service^[24]
Bolivia Air Force^[25]


Potential New Users:
Mauritania’s air force may acquire a Basler Turbo BT-67 for the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) role via Foreign Military Sales. In 2014, the Mauritanian Islamic Air Force (FAIM) upgraded its only BT-67 with an electro-optical (EO) turret and sensor equipment that can provide imagery directly to special mobile phones.^[26]
 
Last July 2018, two Basler Turbo BT-67 FLIR gunships, and two Basler Turbo BT-67 maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) aircraft were offered by Basler Turbo Conversions to the Philippine Air Force for its Long Range Patrol Aircraft requirement.^[27] The Basler Turbo BT-67 FLIR Gunship was formerly offered in late 2016 for the PAF Close Air Support requirement.^[28]


External links 

BT-67 Tough and Tougher on YouTube 

Aviators Season 3 - Giving the Venerable DC-3 New Life on YouTube 

Citations

1. https://www.scribd.com/document/371583706/Basler-BT-67-Brochure
2. http://www.baslerturbo.com/faqs.html
3. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/basler-conversion-revives-dc-3-beyond-its-75th-birth-351025/
4. https://www.wisconsinaviationhalloffame.org/inductees/basler.htm
5. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/basler-conversion-revives-dc-3-beyond-its-75th-birth-351025/
6. https://www.airspacemag.com/flight-today/turbine-charged-1066824/
7. www.baslerturbo.com/history.html
8. https://www.wisconsinaviationhalloffame.org/inductees/basler.htm
9. http://www.jetwhine.com/2009/01/finding-good-news-at-osh/
10. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/us/thats-all-brother-plane.html
11. http://www.jetwhine.com/2009/01/finding-good-news-at-osh/
12. http://www.jetwhine.com/2009/01/finding-good-news-at-osh/
13. https://www.scribd.com/document/371583706/Basler-BT-67-Brochure
14. https://www.scribd.com/document/371583706/Basler-BT-67-Brochure
15. http://www.baslerturbo.com/specifications.html
16. http://www.baslerturbo.com/
17. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/basler-conversion-revives-dc-3-beyond-its-75th-birth-351025/
18. https://warisboring.com/colombias-ac-47t-fantasmas-are-still-going-strong/
19. https://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1990/1990%20-%203638.html
20. https://www.awi.de/en/expedition/aircraft/polar-5-6.html
21. http://www.baslerturbo.com/bt-67-worldwide.html
22. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/basler-conversion-revives-dc-3-beyond-its-75th-birth-351025/
23. https://www.gainesville.com/news/20051027/hurlburt-field-flying-historic-gooney-bird-built-62-years-ago
24. https://missoulian.com/news/opinion/mailbag/firefighting-aircraft-bt--is-safest-most-economical/article_a126020a-297e-5818-8222-29f891e61f25.html
25. https://journaltimes.com/news/oshkosh-company-recycles-dc--s/article_334dc002-b5f8-5b95-aeb1-3884080b57c6.html
26. http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=52820:mauritania-possibly-getting-bt-67-isr-aircraft&catid=35:Aerospace&Itemid=107
27. https://www.janes.com/article/81975/philippines-to-bolster-airborne-coin-capabilities-with-broncos-potentially-baslers 
28. https://web.archive.org/web/20161018034226/http://www.janes.com/article/64580/basler-offers-bt-67-gunship-to-philippines/