Will the 777NG be proposed to BA-Iberia Joint Widebody Order?

In Aviation Week

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/avd/2010/10/11/06.xml&headline=BA%20And%20Iberia%20Plan%20Big%20Joint%20Widebody%20Order,

the A350 and B777 are pitted against each other.

United A350 (FlightGlobal)

The A350, on paper at least and eventually when flying, will outperform the B777. Although the B777 is the king of its sector today, it has to be renewed to remain competitive 3 years down the road. And airlines are ordering now for that future period.

The A350 beat the B777 in the United contest a few months ago. Boeing must now act to present the renewed version B777NG or risk losing more contests like this big BA-Iberia deal.

Air Canada B777

I have discussed before how the B777NG can come about in

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2008/12/777-on-top-of-its-game.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/06/competitive-upgrading-of-boeing-777.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/12/united-a350-orders-boeing-needs-to.html

737-8, the true 757 replacement

Boeing is faced with reengining or new design decisions with its best-selling 737 model lineup. It is also faced with the CSeries challenge from Bombardier, the NEO reengined A320 from Airbus, the Comac 919 from China and the Russian MS-21. Embraer may come out with an E-190 refresh or even a clean sheet design for a new airliner. The GTF-powered Japanese MRJ is not of the same capacity range.

737 GTF concept - FlightGlobal picture

Given these challengers, Boeing may opt to leverage the upcoming 757 replacement cycle by coming out with the 737-8. The 737-8 may have the following specs:

1. Longer than the 737-900 to increase seat count
2. GTF-powered, taking advantage of the higher landing gear to accomodate the longer fuselage
3. New composite wings to accomodate the larger diameter GTF engine, and higher payload
4. 787-style cockpit and interior
5. More composite material content
6. Aerodynamic tweaks
7. Front wheel electric tug for taxiing

The 737-8 may become feasible if Boeing can get at least 250 orders, both for 757 replacements and new placements. Boeing have been very successful in other 737 derivatives, including the P-8A Poseidon MPA that combines the -800 and -900 models into a new model.

Then to face the Bombardier CSeries and other super regional airliner competition, Boeing can come out with the 717 replacement, an all-new design airliner. It can have cockpit and other compatabilities with the 737-8.

In effect, Boeing will split the wide 737 range into a two model range.

737 Replacements = 717 replacement + 757 replacement

CSeries Rises

Presented with the Cseries challenge from Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing are touting the re-engining of their successful A320's and B737's, even new build replacement. The A320 is more amenable to a P&W Geared Turbo Fan or GTF re-engining because of its higher wing ground clearance. However, the B737 will need more modifications that may not be financially feasible.

Thus Boeing's assessment of an earlier 737 replacement, or the 797.

A mere size for size replacement of the 737 will leave open the door for Bombardier to capture the lower 737 end, with the surety that it will move up in plane size later to challenge both the A320 and B737, and even their replacements.

Boeing 717 replacement for CSeries competition

ApproSys will advise Boeing to instead build a 717 replacement, and study 737 tweaks that will be able to replace the 757's in the airlines' fleets at the lower end. The higher 757 end can be serviced later by a lightened 787 like the deferred 787-3 version.

757 - a reengined 737NG can be a replacement option