777NG To Continue Dominance

Today, the Boeing 777 series is on Top of its Game - the B777-300ER, B777-200 LR, and B777F.

B777-300ER

The B777-300ER has basically a lock-in in its market segment. It has locked out Airbus' A-340 in this segment. The A-340 production line has basically ground to a halt, a victim of the B777 twin-engine efficiency and high fuel costs. The B777-300ER has also become a favorite B-747 replacement in many routes.

B777-300ER

In the Long Range derby, the B777-200LR has also vanquished the Airbus A-340-500, because again of the B777 twin-engine efficiency and high fuel costs.

B777-200LR

The new B777F is soon to go on commercial service with no competitors in its segment aside from maybe the significantly smaller A-330F that have yet to start assembly. Air France will be the launch customer.

B777F

The Boeing 777 series will stay on top of its game until the Airbus A-350XWB will start flying maybe in 5 years. Then, the B777-200 series on the low end will come under great pressure.

How will the Boeing 777 series cope with this threat?

For a B777NG, my 2 cents are:

1. Increase passenger count while maintaining range to lower seat-mile cost.

2. Increase engine efficiency and weight reduction using 787 technology.

3. Aerodynamic tweaks to reduce drag.

4. A new lighter and more efficient composite wing that can also be used later on a B777 replacement, assuming BWB design will not be used for this.

5. Use the B777 attic to increase passenger count.

6. Semi-virtual cockpit in the attic area to increase passenger count.

7. Two pilot concept to reduce pilot cost - UAV pilot technology assisting a human pilot.

8. Production process enhancements.

With a comparable seat-mile cost as the new A-350XWB but with a higher seat count and more spacious seating, the B777NG can hold the challenge until the B7107, the B777 replacement, comes on line.

Boeing 767-400 ER as new KC-767 alternative

The Pentagon has changed the RFP for the KC-X competition to award extra points for fuel offload that surpasses the fuel offload requirement. This puts the KC-767 that is based on the 767-200F at a disadvantage to the A330 tanker competition.

A more competitive KC-767 may be a tanker based on the Boeing 767-400 ER, albeit with a shortened fuselage. Such a KC-767 tanker will have the following advantages:

Boeing 767-400ER

1. Easier and cheaper to implement since you need only to remove parts of the fuselage, no new wing and wing interface design, production and testing.

2. More capacity with its bigger wings, engine and fuselage.

3. More updated design and cockpit.

4. More efficient and lighter empty weight than the A-330.

The Pentagon has extended lifetime costs comparison to 40 years but separated it into near acquisition and long past acquisition periods. This is quite odd that may favor a cheaper plane to acquire but on the long term will cost more to operate and support.

The Boeing 767-400ER as the KC-767 may be more competitive than the 767-200F in this area since it will be less complex to implement, thus lower acquisition cost.

Return of the Rural Transports - Twin Otter, Dornier 228 and Nomad

The good designs of the Twin Otter, the Dornier Do-228 and the Nomad airplanes, together with enough market demand, will bring these Rural Transport type aircrafts back into production.

The Nomad is an Australian-designed 12 seater twin turboprop Rural Transport type aircraft with 170 units built from 1971 to 1984 when production ended. 54 Nomads remain operational worldwide according to Gippsland Aeronautics, the maker of the 8 seater GA-8 Airvan that bought the Nomad design from Boeing Australia last June. The Next-Generation Nomad has already two letters of intent from two Australian operators and expected to be in production by 2010.

Nomad

The Dornier Do-228 is a German-designed twin turboprop Rural Transport type aircraft with a 19 seat capacity. More than 200 were built from 1981 to 1998 when production ended. In 2003, RUAG of Germany acquired the design of the aircraft from the insolvent Fairchild-Dornier as part of its purchase of the Aircraft Services Division. In October 2007, RUAG decided to resume series production of the aircraft as the Do 228 New Generation. The fuselage, wings and tail unit will be supplied by Hindustan Aeronautics of India, and final assembly will be at RUAG's Pfaffenhofen plant. First deliveries of the new aircraft model is expected in 2010.

Dornier 228

The Twin Otter is a Canadian-designed twin turboprop 19 seat Rural Transport type aircraft that was produced from 1965 to 1988 with more than 800 aircraft built. In 2006, Canada's Viking Air bought the design from Bombardier and will use some of the Twin Otter's original toolings to manufacture the new generation Series 400 model. First deliveries of the new generation Twin Otter Series 400 model will be in 2010.

Twin Otter

Tanker Comparison

The long running saga between the KC-767 and the KC-330 in the tanker competition has generated a lot of half truths between the two competing companies Boeing and NG-Airbus. Let us try to sort this out.

1. NG-Airbus, and Airbus for that matter, has not yet produced any operational tanker. Their models are still in the test phase, both the KC-330 MRTT and their A310 boom test plane.

2. Boeing has delivered operational KC-767 tankers to Japan but of the A series, not the AT series that is designed for the USAF.

3. Boeing has delivered a lot of tankers to the USAF for a long time.

4. Airbus has tested the boom designed for the KC-330.

5. Boeing has yet to make and test the boom for its KC-767AT but has an operational boom used in the KC-767A of Japan and Italy.

KC-767A refuels a B-52 bomber

6. The KC-330 has a larger payload than the KC-767AT.

7. The KC-330 has a higher flight fuel consumption than the KC-767AT.

8. The KC-330 has a more contemporary design.

9. The KC-767 has a lighter empty weight.

KC-330 drawing

In my opinion, the KC-767 is more appropriate for the USAF for the following reasons:

1. The USAF covers the whole world and needs more tankers/more gas nozzles in the sky.

2. The lower flight fuel consumption of the KC-767AT will be a big advantage over the 50 year deployment of the tanker.

3. The KC-767AT satisfies the stated USAF requirements and a large improvement over the KC-135 that it will replace.

4. The KC-767AT will need a lot less of infrastructure modifications in air bases.

5. The KC-767AT is perceived to be more of a US-made tanker, and returns more of the acquisition costs to the US economy and to US employees.

Good Chances for Bombardier CSeries jet

Bombardier has announced the production of its 130 seater C series jet before the openning of the Farnborough Air Show. With an Aluminum-Lithium alloy fuselage, Composite wings and a Pratt and Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine, it offers better economic and lower emission advantages over rival models from Airbus and Boeing. Both very important in a $200 per barrel, and global warming environment.

And Bombardier might just succeed against these two giants in this passenger plane sector.

Bombardier C series drawing

Boeing and Airbus both has recently announced that their new aircrafts in this sector will not be introduced until 2018 at the earliest. With the Bombardier C jet planned to be introduced by 2013, it will have a long five year monopoly period. This period may be shortened if Brazilian plane maker Embraer will lengthen and enhance its E-195 passenger jet to a similar seating capacity. However, the C series jet will have the big advantage of a new revolutionary engine in the Pratt and Whitney GTF, and lighter fuselage and wings.

The main threats that the Bombardier C jet may face towards its success are:

1. The reliability and on-service date of the Pratt and Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine - the reliability of the reduction gearbox inside the hot engine is still being proven, and potential problems on this will have a big effect on on-service date. Long term reliability also is still to be proven.

2. The sturdiness of an Aluminum-Lithium fuselage with Composite wings passenger jet on a high cycle operation.

3. Production capability of Bombardier factories, specially its partners in China and Ireland.

4. WTO protests from competitors specially Embraer.

5. Massive discounting by Boeing and Airbus on their respective competing models - B737-600 and A-318.


Overall, my gut feel is the Bombardier CSeries jet will be a success.