A320NEO - Still a paper airliner

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2016 - That is a long way off, 5 years at least.


For the stated modifications, that's a long time for a major airliner manufacturer such as Airbus. It begs the idea that, as of now, it is just a positioning stunt by Airbus. To keep off-balanced Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer and Irkut.

A320NEO

In 'A320neo kills business case for CSeries: Leahy'

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/12/01/350389/a320neo-kills-business-case-for-cseries-leahy.html

Airbus' Mr. Leahy said "There is virtually no business case left for the CSeries. It has the same number of seats, we have a wider fuselage, the fuel burn is similar and we offer 1,200nm [2,200km] more range."


Let's study the points:

1. It has the same number of seats - only the A318 version is similar, it's not selling well, and suffers from weight penalties due to shrink. Score 1 for the CSeries.

2. We have a wider fuselage - because it sits 6 abreast compared to the CSeries' 5 abreast. The CSeries will have a better seat width because of this, and also better drag coefficient. Score 2 for the CSeries.

3. Fuel burn is similar - admitedly fuel cost is very important but the A319NEO will still be much heavier than the Ceries. Let's put this at draw, still CSeries at 2 point advantage.

4. 1,200nm [2,200km] more range - this is good for those who need the range but CSeries will trump the A319 within its range parameters. Let's put this again at draw, still CSeries at 2 point advantage.

CSeries at 2 point advantage based on Mr. Leahy's parameters.

CSeries

It gets better for the CSeries, since the A320NEO validates the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine line. Maybe Qatar Airways will now order the CSeries.


The CSeries, if it enters commercial operations, will be the best in its class for at least 7 years. It may also become the best MD-80 replacement, thousands of which is in operation.


As for Boeing, it will need to make the B737's operating efficiency at least within 5 % points of the A320NEO if it does not offer a B737 replacement within the same period.


Ultimately, Airbus will sell a lot of A320NEO's. but will it maintain its market share in the single aisle sector against the CSeries, B737, C919, and MS21? As the Chinese say, we are in interesting times in the single aisle sector.

Will the 777NG be proposed to BA-Iberia Joint Widebody Order?

In Aviation Week

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/avd/2010/10/11/06.xml&headline=BA%20And%20Iberia%20Plan%20Big%20Joint%20Widebody%20Order,

the A350 and B777 are pitted against each other.

United A350 (FlightGlobal)

The A350, on paper at least and eventually when flying, will outperform the B777. Although the B777 is the king of its sector today, it has to be renewed to remain competitive 3 years down the road. And airlines are ordering now for that future period.

The A350 beat the B777 in the United contest a few months ago. Boeing must now act to present the renewed version B777NG or risk losing more contests like this big BA-Iberia deal.

Air Canada B777

I have discussed before how the B777NG can come about in

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2008/12/777-on-top-of-its-game.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/06/competitive-upgrading-of-boeing-777.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/12/united-a350-orders-boeing-needs-to.html

737-8, the true 757 replacement

Boeing is faced with reengining or new design decisions with its best-selling 737 model lineup. It is also faced with the CSeries challenge from Bombardier, the NEO reengined A320 from Airbus, the Comac 919 from China and the Russian MS-21. Embraer may come out with an E-190 refresh or even a clean sheet design for a new airliner. The GTF-powered Japanese MRJ is not of the same capacity range.

737 GTF concept - FlightGlobal picture

Given these challengers, Boeing may opt to leverage the upcoming 757 replacement cycle by coming out with the 737-8. The 737-8 may have the following specs:

1. Longer than the 737-900 to increase seat count
2. GTF-powered, taking advantage of the higher landing gear to accomodate the longer fuselage
3. New composite wings to accomodate the larger diameter GTF engine, and higher payload
4. 787-style cockpit and interior
5. More composite material content
6. Aerodynamic tweaks
7. Front wheel electric tug for taxiing

The 737-8 may become feasible if Boeing can get at least 250 orders, both for 757 replacements and new placements. Boeing have been very successful in other 737 derivatives, including the P-8A Poseidon MPA that combines the -800 and -900 models into a new model.

Then to face the Bombardier CSeries and other super regional airliner competition, Boeing can come out with the 717 replacement, an all-new design airliner. It can have cockpit and other compatabilities with the 737-8.

In effect, Boeing will split the wide 737 range into a two model range.

737 Replacements = 717 replacement + 757 replacement

CSeries Rises

Presented with the Cseries challenge from Bombardier, Airbus and Boeing are touting the re-engining of their successful A320's and B737's, even new build replacement. The A320 is more amenable to a P&W Geared Turbo Fan or GTF re-engining because of its higher wing ground clearance. However, the B737 will need more modifications that may not be financially feasible.

Thus Boeing's assessment of an earlier 737 replacement, or the 797.

A mere size for size replacement of the 737 will leave open the door for Bombardier to capture the lower 737 end, with the surety that it will move up in plane size later to challenge both the A320 and B737, and even their replacements.

Boeing 717 replacement for CSeries competition

ApproSys will advise Boeing to instead build a 717 replacement, and study 737 tweaks that will be able to replace the 757's in the airlines' fleets at the lower end. The higher 757 end can be serviced later by a lightened 787 like the deferred 787-3 version.

757 - a reengined 737NG can be a replacement option

777-8 LR, Longer Ranged 777-300ER - Dynamics with the 787

A Longer Ranged 777-300ER is possible as the next iteration of the very successful 777 line. Its objective will be to connect and to service all possible city pairs worldwide. It's like a lengthened 777LR with additional range.

The possible markets are Sydney to London, New York, Chicago; London to Tokyo, Hong Kong; Dubai to Los Angeles, Buenos Aires; etc. City pairs that are not now regularly makes economic sense.

This is creating a 747-like monopoly again for Boeing.

Boeing may do this, in addition to a 787-10, to blunt the Airbus A-350. By going to a 787-10, it may concentrate modifications to the 773ER for range instead of a massive redesign. And the 777-8 LR will surely benefit from 787 technologies, and newer technologies from:

1. UAV's or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - flight efficiency planning, control redundancy

2. GENx modifications to GE90

3. Fuselage utilization reconfiguration

And can the 783 be a 757 eplacement?

How can Lockheed compete with the Airbus A-400M

With the recent financial agreement of EADS with the A-400M partner countries, the new military cargo plane is off to production and deployment.

And the A-400M will become a big threat to the Lockheed C-130J, even in the US Air Force cargo fleet.

Lockheed can compete with the A-400M in three ways:

1. Upsize and update the C-130J
The main problem identified with the C-130J is that it cannot carry the Stryker LAV on a rollon/rolloff basis. But even given this constraint, Lockheed claims that the present C-130J can already transport more than 90% of the US Air Force requirements.
In order to be able to carry the Stryker LAV on a rollon/rolloff basis, the C-130J fuselage can be upsized. The wheelwell can be moved so as to enable the whole fuselage interior diameter available for cargo use. The wingbox can also be raised above the fuselage interior diameter to increase interior cargo area in the height dimension.
With these fuselage changes, the engine and propellers need also to be uprated to increase the payload capacity of the aircraft.
Other modifications may include:
- new avionics
- new materials to reduce empty weight
- more efficient production process

2. New C-130 version
Lockheed has the C-130XL proposal, pictured below, featuring a larger fuselage. It is a more radical modification than option 1 above.

Lockheed can use its experience in developing the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft (ACCA) (shown below) based on the Dornier Do-328JET, to develop the C-130XL in composite materials.
As in option 1 C-130 version, new engines/propellers, new avionics, efficient production processes, will have to be implemented. The new C-130 version will be the most capital intensive among the different options.


3. Cooperate with Antonov in the An-70 cargo plane

Lockheed can cooperate with Antonov in putting the An-70 into serial production in the U.S. using mostly U.S. components. The two companies can each supply a specified market territory and each others home countries. They can also share specified intellectual properties of the An-70 development.
Such an arrangement will certainly need to break down psychological barriers among the US Air Force personnel and generally, among US citizens, in order to push through.

Will the Fokker 100NG use the GTF of Pratt & Whitney?

In the latest web issue of Flight Global magazine (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/03/06/339155/fokker-resurrection-scheme-secures-loan-for-prototype.html), it says that NG Aircraft is to receive €20 million ($27 million) loan from the Dutch economics ministry. The loan will be used to modify an existing Fokker 100 airframe to the Fokker 100NG standard, this year.




NG Aircraft is the successor company to the Rekkof company that has been attempting for the past years to restart production of former Fokker aircrafts like the Fokker 50, Fokker 70 and Fokker 100. If the Fokker 100NG is successful, it will follow the tale of the Twin Otter, the Dornier 228 and the Nomad planes whose production are also being restarted. (http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2008/07/return-of-rural-transports-twin-otter.html)

For the Fokker 100NG to be successful, it must be able to compete with existing regional jets such as the CRJ1000, Embraer E190, Sukhoi Super Jet, and the ARJ21; and the up and coming Bombardier CSeries, Mitsubishi Regional Jet and the Comac 919. Furthermore, NG Aircraft has to develop marketing and maintenance chains. Rekkof has good record already on the MRO of Fokker planes but may have to build-up its marketing muscle.

For the Fokker 100NG plane to compete, it must have at least 15% better operating economics than its predecessor Fokker 100. Fokker 100's reputation of a weight-efficient structure is a very good start.



Marrying this with a new design efficient engine such as the Pratt&Whitney PW1000 GTF will pose a very competitive product even against the new-build MRJ and the CSeries. The Pratt&Whitney PW1000 GTF engine design has the potential to eclipse other present engine designs in the market once its reliability has been proven. Further improvements on the turbojet parts of the GTF engine in materials and design, will make it even more competitive.

Other possible Fokker 100NG improvements that can be done includes

1. Weight reductions

2. Aerodynamic tweaks

3. New Avionics

4. More efficients seats and seating configuration

5. Flight optimization software

With these modifications, the Fokker 100NG will be ready to compete with the newer regional jets, like the 40 year old Boeing 747 design with the 747-8 version in the Very Large Aircraft sector.