A320NEO - Still a paper airliner

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2016 - That is a long way off, 5 years at least.


For the stated modifications, that's a long time for a major airliner manufacturer such as Airbus. It begs the idea that, as of now, it is just a positioning stunt by Airbus. To keep off-balanced Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer and Irkut.

A320NEO

In 'A320neo kills business case for CSeries: Leahy'

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/12/01/350389/a320neo-kills-business-case-for-cseries-leahy.html

Airbus' Mr. Leahy said "There is virtually no business case left for the CSeries. It has the same number of seats, we have a wider fuselage, the fuel burn is similar and we offer 1,200nm [2,200km] more range."


Let's study the points:

1. It has the same number of seats - only the A318 version is similar, it's not selling well, and suffers from weight penalties due to shrink. Score 1 for the CSeries.

2. We have a wider fuselage - because it sits 6 abreast compared to the CSeries' 5 abreast. The CSeries will have a better seat width because of this, and also better drag coefficient. Score 2 for the CSeries.

3. Fuel burn is similar - admitedly fuel cost is very important but the A319NEO will still be much heavier than the Ceries. Let's put this at draw, still CSeries at 2 point advantage.

4. 1,200nm [2,200km] more range - this is good for those who need the range but CSeries will trump the A319 within its range parameters. Let's put this again at draw, still CSeries at 2 point advantage.

CSeries at 2 point advantage based on Mr. Leahy's parameters.

CSeries

It gets better for the CSeries, since the A320NEO validates the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine line. Maybe Qatar Airways will now order the CSeries.


The CSeries, if it enters commercial operations, will be the best in its class for at least 7 years. It may also become the best MD-80 replacement, thousands of which is in operation.


As for Boeing, it will need to make the B737's operating efficiency at least within 5 % points of the A320NEO if it does not offer a B737 replacement within the same period.


Ultimately, Airbus will sell a lot of A320NEO's. but will it maintain its market share in the single aisle sector against the CSeries, B737, C919, and MS21? As the Chinese say, we are in interesting times in the single aisle sector.

Will the 777NG be proposed to BA-Iberia Joint Widebody Order?

In Aviation Week

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/avd/2010/10/11/06.xml&headline=BA%20And%20Iberia%20Plan%20Big%20Joint%20Widebody%20Order,

the A350 and B777 are pitted against each other.

United A350 (FlightGlobal)

The A350, on paper at least and eventually when flying, will outperform the B777. Although the B777 is the king of its sector today, it has to be renewed to remain competitive 3 years down the road. And airlines are ordering now for that future period.

The A350 beat the B777 in the United contest a few months ago. Boeing must now act to present the renewed version B777NG or risk losing more contests like this big BA-Iberia deal.

Air Canada B777

I have discussed before how the B777NG can come about in

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2008/12/777-on-top-of-its-game.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/06/competitive-upgrading-of-boeing-777.html

http://planetalks.blogspot.com/2009/12/united-a350-orders-boeing-needs-to.html

737-8, the true 757 replacement

Boeing is faced with reengining or new design decisions with its best-selling 737 model lineup. It is also faced with the CSeries challenge from Bombardier, the NEO reengined A320 from Airbus, the Comac 919 from China and the Russian MS-21. Embraer may come out with an E-190 refresh or even a clean sheet design for a new airliner. The GTF-powered Japanese MRJ is not of the same capacity range.

737 GTF concept - FlightGlobal picture

Given these challengers, Boeing may opt to leverage the upcoming 757 replacement cycle by coming out with the 737-8. The 737-8 may have the following specs:

1. Longer than the 737-900 to increase seat count
2. GTF-powered, taking advantage of the higher landing gear to accomodate the longer fuselage
3. New composite wings to accomodate the larger diameter GTF engine, and higher payload
4. 787-style cockpit and interior
5. More composite material content
6. Aerodynamic tweaks
7. Front wheel electric tug for taxiing

The 737-8 may become feasible if Boeing can get at least 250 orders, both for 757 replacements and new placements. Boeing have been very successful in other 737 derivatives, including the P-8A Poseidon MPA that combines the -800 and -900 models into a new model.

Then to face the Bombardier CSeries and other super regional airliner competition, Boeing can come out with the 717 replacement, an all-new design airliner. It can have cockpit and other compatabilities with the 737-8.

In effect, Boeing will split the wide 737 range into a two model range.