777NG To Continue Dominance

Today, the Boeing 777 series is on Top of its Game - the B777-300ER, B777-200 LR, and B777F.

B777-300ER

The B777-300ER has basically a lock-in in its market segment. It has locked out Airbus' A-340 in this segment. The A-340 production line has basically ground to a halt, a victim of the B777 twin-engine efficiency and high fuel costs. The B777-300ER has also become a favorite B-747 replacement in many routes.

B777-300ER

In the Long Range derby, the B777-200LR has also vanquished the Airbus A-340-500, because again of the B777 twin-engine efficiency and high fuel costs.

B777-200LR

The new B777F is soon to go on commercial service with no competitors in its segment aside from maybe the significantly smaller A-330F that have yet to start assembly. Air France will be the launch customer.

B777F

The Boeing 777 series will stay on top of its game until the Airbus A-350XWB will start flying maybe in 5 years. Then, the B777-200 series on the low end will come under great pressure.

How will the Boeing 777 series cope with this threat?

For a B777NG, my 2 cents are:

1. Increase passenger count while maintaining range to lower seat-mile cost.

2. Increase engine efficiency and weight reduction using 787 technology.

3. Aerodynamic tweaks to reduce drag.

4. A new lighter and more efficient composite wing that can also be used later on a B777 replacement, assuming BWB design will not be used for this.

5. Use the B777 attic to increase passenger count.

6. Semi-virtual cockpit in the attic area to increase passenger count.

7. Two pilot concept to reduce pilot cost - UAV pilot technology assisting a human pilot.

8. Production process enhancements.

With a comparable seat-mile cost as the new A-350XWB but with a higher seat count and more spacious seating, the B777NG can hold the challenge until the B7107, the B777 replacement, comes on line.

Boeing 767-400 ER as new KC-767 alternative

The Pentagon has changed the RFP for the KC-X competition to award extra points for fuel offload that surpasses the fuel offload requirement. This puts the KC-767 that is based on the 767-200F at a disadvantage to the A330 tanker competition.

A more competitive KC-767 may be a tanker based on the Boeing 767-400 ER, albeit with a shortened fuselage. Such a KC-767 tanker will have the following advantages:

Boeing 767-400ER

1. Easier and cheaper to implement since you need only to remove parts of the fuselage, no new wing and wing interface design, production and testing.

2. More capacity with its bigger wings, engine and fuselage.

3. More updated design and cockpit.

4. More efficient and lighter empty weight than the A-330.

The Pentagon has extended lifetime costs comparison to 40 years but separated it into near acquisition and long past acquisition periods. This is quite odd that may favor a cheaper plane to acquire but on the long term will cost more to operate and support.

The Boeing 767-400ER as the KC-767 may be more competitive than the 767-200F in this area since it will be less complex to implement, thus lower acquisition cost.

Return of the Rural Transports - Twin Otter, Dornier 228 and Nomad

The good designs of the Twin Otter, the Dornier Do-228 and the Nomad airplanes, together with enough market demand, will bring these Rural Transport type aircrafts back into production.

The Nomad is an Australian-designed 12 seater twin turboprop Rural Transport type aircraft with 170 units built from 1971 to 1984 when production ended. 54 Nomads remain operational worldwide according to Gippsland Aeronautics, the maker of the 8 seater GA-8 Airvan that bought the Nomad design from Boeing Australia last June. The Next-Generation Nomad has already two letters of intent from two Australian operators and expected to be in production by 2010.

Nomad

The Dornier Do-228 is a German-designed twin turboprop Rural Transport type aircraft with a 19 seat capacity. More than 200 were built from 1981 to 1998 when production ended. In 2003, RUAG of Germany acquired the design of the aircraft from the insolvent Fairchild-Dornier as part of its purchase of the Aircraft Services Division. In October 2007, RUAG decided to resume series production of the aircraft as the Do 228 New Generation. The fuselage, wings and tail unit will be supplied by Hindustan Aeronautics of India, and final assembly will be at RUAG's Pfaffenhofen plant. First deliveries of the new aircraft model is expected in 2010.

Dornier 228

The Twin Otter is a Canadian-designed twin turboprop 19 seat Rural Transport type aircraft that was produced from 1965 to 1988 with more than 800 aircraft built. In 2006, Canada's Viking Air bought the design from Bombardier and will use some of the Twin Otter's original toolings to manufacture the new generation Series 400 model. First deliveries of the new generation Twin Otter Series 400 model will be in 2010.

Twin Otter