Tuesday, December 29, 2009

United A350 orders - Boeing needs to offer 777NG to airlines

United’s order for twenty five A350’s instead of 777’s should be a wakeup call for Boeing. United had been the 777’s launch airline almost 15 years ago and will probably now be the US launch airline for the A350.

One interpretation of this purchase may be that United sees the present 777 configuration as inferior to the promised specifications of the A350, as it is still a paper airliner.

Given that, Boeing should now present a 777NG paper airliner to airlines to blunt the inroads of the A350 to this niche market, that has reached more than 500 orders.

Philippine Air Lines 777-300ER

This number of A350 orders can also be explained by the absence of delivery slots with the 787 program. But as the A330 was sidelined by the 787, the 777 will suffer the same fate unless a 777NG will be competitive enough.

Boeing can squeeze the A350 from two directions. From the lower end, by building the 787-10, and from the higher end via a 777NG.

The 777’s advantages over the A350 are:
1. cargo capacity
2. cabin width
3. fuselage crown area
4. mature reliable engine

For the 777NG to keep pace with the A350, it needs to be able to match if not exceed the seat-mile efficiency, the production cost, and the operating/maintenance cost of the A350. And maintain its advantages. This is a tall order for a twenty year older airliner but that is what an NG is about.

Possible 777NG features are:
1. a new composite wing that is also optimized for a possible 777 replacement
2. lightened fuselage through composites and new alloys
3. increased range to cover all airport pairs
4. relocated semi-virtual cockpit in the fuselage crown to increase passenger count
5. Active Electronically Scanned Array radar to optimize passenger count
6. relocate all possible cabin floor level services to the fuselage crown to increase passenger count
7. engine enhancements to lower fuel cost and/or increase range

If Boeing is able to increase the range of the 777NG to cover all airport pairs, it will have again a premium product that can also be priced at a premium like the 747 before.

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