Fokker 100 Next Generation - Prospects

Assuming that the 24,541 kgs Fokker 100 has a more weight efficient structure than the current 28,080 kgs Embraer 190, it might have good potential for a refresh and new production. The Fokker 100's empty weight is also lighter than the 25,100 kg Sukhoi Superjet 100, and the 26,270 kg ARJ21. However, it is heavier than the 23,179 kg CRJ1000 and the planned empty weight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet MRJ-90 of 22,600 kg that is part composite.

Given the above empty weight figures, the Fokker 100NG has the potential to be competitive in its sector even against the newer aircraft designs. As stated in the Fokker 100NG website http://ngaircraft.com/, the planned new aircraft will have

1. New engine - maybe P&W Purepower GTF or GE CF-34 or Rolls-Royce BR725
   
2. Winglet addition
3. New avionics
4. New Interior
5. Additional fuel capacity
   

The above features will be adopted to an existing Fokker 100 aircraft to come out with the prototype Fokker 100NG. This modification process may be offered to existing operators to refresh their fleets.



If ever NG Aircraft will reach the point where they will produce new-build Fokker 100NGs, they may also do the following to make the aircraft more competitive:

1. Aerodynamic cleanups like what Boeing is doing with the B737
   
2. Use of lighter and more durable materials like the Fokker-initiated Glare used in the A380
   

However, expensive new developments will impact negatively the price of new-build Fokker 100NGs.


If ever the Fokker 100NG will enter commercial service, it will be competitive in its market sector. Possible customers are present operators like KLM Cityhopper.

The big disadvantage that the Fokker 100NG has is on the corporate side. After building the Fokker 100NG prototype, it will then have to put online the production system. Then it will need a marketing infrastructure, then the service support. The last is at least in existence now.

EADS may see an opportunity in the Fokker 100NG and use its cash hoard to buy the aircraft company to complete its Airbus portfolio from 100 to 600 passenger capacity.

Boeing 797 Engines > > New-Core GTF; Bigger Fan, GEnxed LEAP-X; New RR Turbofan

Boeing Patented Airliner Design (Boeing graphics)

Given the planned 2019 entry to service of the Boeing 797, assuming that the Boeing Company will proceed with its development, the three main engine companies have more than 5 years to come out with new engines that will be more efficient than the engines of the upcoming A320NEO, MS-21, Comac 919, Bombardier C300, and Mitsubishi Regional Jet.

This will give an advantage to the Boeing 797 initially, that which can be later integrated to the earlier introduced airliners.

The three main engine companies can do the following:

1. Pratt & Whitney - new turbine core for its GTF series
2. G.E. - larger fans for its LEAP-X with GEnx technology integration
3. Rolls-Royce - a new 3 spool engine with large fans

Boeing Patented Airliner Design (Boeing graphics)

Given this scenario, I will not be surprised if the A320NEO will become the A360, an all new design. It can be similar to what transpired with the A350, that became the A350XWB, but now just called the A350. Airbus has at least 2 years to change its mind.

Boeing 797 - Ideas For Boeing 737 Replacement

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The objective in this exercise is to have the all-new Boeing 797 leapfrog the proposed A-320 NEO with a 15% better profitability.

This will have to mean lower costs and higher revenues.

On the cost side, the Boeing 797 will need

1. Lower fuel costs
2. Lower maintenance costs
3. Lower acquisition costs

On the revenue side, the Boeing 797 will need

1. Cover more city pairs
2. Cover a wider capacity range
3. More attractive to passengers
4. More attractive to buyers

To lower the fuel costs, the Boeing 797 will need to have a more fuel efficient engine. Possibilities are

1. A next version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine with a newer core, and optimized gear and turbofan sections.
   
2. A GE engine adopted from the B787 GEnX.
3. A new Rolls Royce 3 spool engine.

The Boeing 797 must use a next generation engine to ones to be used in the planned A320NEO, Comac 919 and MS-21. These new version engines can also later be retrofitted to the other competing airliners but the Boeing 797 will have a headstart.

Better aerodynamics is a given for the Boeing 797 that will integrate lessons from the Boeing 787 and Boeing 747-8 developments. It can also use the latest in computational aerodynamics using the latest in computing power. This is based on the assumption that the Boeing 797 will be the traditional cylinder with wings design.

However, if the Boeing 797 will introduce a new body/wing configuration, it will have to tackle the aerodynamic and other optimization that such a new design will entail. The placement of the Boeing 797 engine is very important based on the possible availability of the very economical open rotor engine by the late 2020's. The Boeing 797 design must be easily adoptable to an open rotor engine, while being optimized for a turbofan engine with which it will initially come out with.

The Boeing 797 will use the latest lighter materials such as composites and the new aluminum alloys. As a result of the success of the Boeing 787's composite materials, the aluminum industry is busy updating their material to remain competitive with the composites. It is important that these new materials must be easy and low cost to maintain given the high availability needs for a high use tempo airliner. This brings opportunities to the Boeing 797 and the upcoming single aisles. The A320 NEO update will surely take advantage of this development as well.

The composite's advantage over aluminum is that it is more amenable to automation and mechanization. This has the possibility of lowering the cost, and increasing the rate of production.

As a high production rate airliner, the Boeing 797 will benefit immensely from a more efficient production system. If it will be a mostly composite airliner like the Boeing 787, the production system will be very amenable to more mechanization and automation that may lead to lower production costs. The lower production costs can mean either a more competitive Boeing 797 price or higher margins or both.

As a high turn-around airliner the Boeing 797 must possess a new efficient gate to gate avionics system that will minimize gate to gate flight times.

Better passenger contentment can also be assured by improving further the Boeing 737 Sky Interior with wider seats and aisle, and better seat placement and configuration.


Airbus can always do an A350XWB move with their A320NEO if it feels that the NEO cannot hack it. It may be a better investment for the EADS cash hoard.