Way Forward For Boeing

With the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing outbalanced Airbus in product mix innovation. Airbus reacted with the A350 that morphed into the A350XWB when it did not get market traction. But thanks to production delays on the 787 program, Airbus has clipped Boeing's 6 year product introduction advantage to just 2 years, assuming no A350 production woes also. The 787's success in the market was to a degree also a disadvantage in a market hungry for more efficient planes. Boeing had no 787 production slots available for more orders leading to an also robust order book for the yet to fly A350. With the 767 win in the USAF tanker competition, Boeing may leverage this to offer an updated 767 at big discount to sell to airlines that cannot get into the long 787 order line.

With the Airbus A320NEO, Airbus seem to be outbalancing Boeing in the large bread and butter single aisle airliner market. While it is accepted that the present 737NG has lower operating costs than the competing A320, the reengined A320NEO will surely beat the 737NG in operating costs. By how much remains to be seen.

The A350 is basically a 2 engine replacement for the A340 that got clobbered by the Boeing 777. It is also an A330 replacement in its shorter fuselage versions. Airbus had an excellent choice of size configuration in the A350 by basically positioning it between the 787 and the 777 and effectively competing with both with a single product. However, with Airbus' recent decision with the A350-1000 modification by lengthening, reengining and wing reforming, the A350 has basically morphed into 2 families. The A350-1000 is now configured to compete with the very successful 777-300ER, and the shorter A350 versions as A330 replacement and 787-10 competitor.

The 787 and 747-8 programs are completing its design-certification processes and going to production ramp-up. This will free a lot of design resources of Boeing that will open the way for refresh and/or new design aircraft programs.

If I were Boeing, I will implement the following:

1. A low cost reengining of the 737 that can cover the 757 replacement market for 2014

2. A 777-8 for 2018

3. 797 new design 737 replacement for 2020

4. 767NG from the KC-46 that is derived from a USAF milspeced KC-767I