Will Airbus Reengine the A330 with a P&W Geared Turbo Fan (GTF)?

Will 737 MAX Improvements Trickle Down To The NG

Aside from re-engining the Boeing 737NG with the GE LEAP engine, Boeing has mentioned adding the following features

1. Adding chevrons to the rear of the engine nacelles to reduce the noise footprint, as initially introduced to the B787 Dreamliner and B747-8 jumbo jet.

2. A revised tail cone design similar to the B787 Dreamliner for better aerodynamics.

3. A natural laminar flow nacelle for better aerodynamics.

4. A hybrid laminar flow vertical stabiliser for better aerodynamics.

Boeing 737 MAX LEAP

All of these can be integrated to the 737NG structure. The advantages in doing these are:

1. Unified design and production methods.

2. Premium pricing on the 737NG's that will have these options.

As Boeing will do continuous incremental improvements on the 737NG, we will see convergence between the 2 models as it moves forward.

What I would like to see Boeing do with the 737MAX LEAP are:

1. Slimmer, lighter and more space-efficient seats.

2. Thinner and more space-efficient cabin walls.

3. More space-efficient seating configurations.

Boeing 737NEXt (New Engine eXtra) Production Plans

Based on the present configuration of Boeing 737NG production capacity, and if Boeing decides on a major revamp of the design it may do:

1. New aluminum alloys and additional composites on the fuselage to leverage present Spirit AeroSystems production capacity.
2. Aerodynamic reprofiling to reduce drag
3. Optimized composite wings to compensate higher engine weight and drag. Composite outer skin may provide better wing shaping and better laminar flow while staying with present wing structures
4. New gate-to-gate trip optimization avionics
5. More spacious cabin through better seating configuration, seat design, and cabin wall optimization at shoulder and knee level

Possible new production lines for the re-engined Boeing 737NG that I call the Boeing 737NEXt (New Engine eXtra), aside from the current Renton, Washington production lines are

1. Near the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kansas where present Boeing 737NG fuselages are assembled

2. The C-17 plant in Long Beach, California where Boeing is winding down its C-17 production, that was originally the main plant of McDonnel Douglas and where the Boeing 717 was also assembled

3. Near the new 787 North Charleston, South Carolina assembly plant

Aside from financial and logistical considerations, Boeing should add into consideration force majeure probability considerations. This will include the Japanese earthquake and consequent tsunami lessons, hurricane threat, flooding, political upheavals, etc.

Boeing's production capacity is highly concentrated in Washington state and Kansas to some extent. It may be a prudent move to locate other Boeing 737NEXt plants in other areas as enumerated above, and other safe areas.

Naming the Re-engined Boeing 737NG

From Boeing 737NG - New Generation

To

Boeing 737NGE - New Generation Engine/Enhanced, or

Boeing 737NEW - New Engine, Wider, or

Boeing 737NEX - New Engine eXtra

The Boeing 737NG re-engining should be simple and budgeted at $1 billion maximum to fund for the Boeing 797 introduction in 2020.

Other design criteria

1. Minimal Boeing 737NG production line disturbances
2. Maximum Boeing 737NG commonality
3. 15% operating cost advantage over Boeing 737NG
4. Wider cabin with better wall interior fittings
5. Better more spacious seats and seating configuration, similar to Air New Zealand concept

It should come out before the A320NEO at the -800 version size in 2014, then the -900 version in 2015. If the costs are right, these can be assembled in the Long Beach C-17 plant that is winding down production. And/Or in the area of the new 787 plant in South Carolina.

The -700 and -600 versions should transition directly to the new Boeing 797 to cover the CSeries and new Embraer competitors.

Boeing Offers B737NGE New Generation Engine for American Airlines Order

While Boeing lost out to Airbus in the American Airlines order battle by

1. Losing supply monopoly of more than 2 decades
2. Number and Price of aircraft ordered (Airbus has 60 more orders and 265 more options)

it also wins with 43.5% (100 B737 + 100 B737NGE  vs  130 A320 + 130 A320NEO) of the order and less than 22% (40 B737 + 60 B737NGE  vs  85 A320 + 280 A320NEO) of the options.

However, the big Boeing win is that it has stabilized its design position on the B737 - Re-engine. This is also a win for airlines that operate B737's, specially Southwest Airlines, that now has their flight efficiency path assured for the next 10 years.

As to the B797 New Small Airplane, I think Boeing will still pursue this for 2020 introduction but will cover the 150-below passenger count to cover the Bombardier CSeries competitor, and plug the hole in its product line range. As I have said before, it can be a win-win situation for them if Boeing and Embraer can cooperate on this.

My preferred name for the new B737 variant is Boeing 737 NGE - New Generation Engine/Enhanced.

Way Forward For Boeing

With the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Boeing outbalanced Airbus in product mix innovation. Airbus reacted with the A350 that morphed into the A350XWB when it did not get market traction. But thanks to production delays on the 787 program, Airbus has clipped Boeing's 6 year product introduction advantage to just 2 years, assuming no A350 production woes also. The 787's success in the market was to a degree also a disadvantage in a market hungry for more efficient planes. Boeing had no 787 production slots available for more orders leading to an also robust order book for the yet to fly A350. With the 767 win in the USAF tanker competition, Boeing may leverage this to offer an updated 767 at big discount to sell to airlines that cannot get into the long 787 order line.

With the Airbus A320NEO, Airbus seem to be outbalancing Boeing in the large bread and butter single aisle airliner market. While it is accepted that the present 737NG has lower operating costs than the competing A320, the reengined A320NEO will surely beat the 737NG in operating costs. By how much remains to be seen.

The A350 is basically a 2 engine replacement for the A340 that got clobbered by the Boeing 777. It is also an A330 replacement in its shorter fuselage versions. Airbus had an excellent choice of size configuration in the A350 by basically positioning it between the 787 and the 777 and effectively competing with both with a single product. However, with Airbus' recent decision with the A350-1000 modification by lengthening, reengining and wing reforming, the A350 has basically morphed into 2 families. The A350-1000 is now configured to compete with the very successful 777-300ER, and the shorter A350 versions as A330 replacement and 787-10 competitor.

The 787 and 747-8 programs are completing its design-certification processes and going to production ramp-up. This will free a lot of design resources of Boeing that will open the way for refresh and/or new design aircraft programs.

If I were Boeing, I will implement the following:

1. A low cost reengining of the 737 that can cover the 757 replacement market for 2014

2. A 777-8 for 2018

3. 797 new design 737 replacement for 2020

4. 767NG from the KC-46 that is derived from a USAF milspeced KC-767I

AirPino - Multi Purpose Light Aircraft Integrating Rural Pilipinos

 


The Philippine Aircraft Industry has shown its capability to produce for the many and varied aircraft requirements of the country in the past. It has designed and/or fabricated various aircraft from the 1950’s such as the XL series of the 1950’s, the Islander, the S-211 jet, the Bolkow helicopter, the Defiant 300 and numerous others. As a developing country, the requirements for aircraft is increasing specially given the archipelagic and mountainous geography.

The AirPino Project is the local manufacture of a multipurpose light aircraft that can be used for

1. Rural Air Transport providing for Inter island, Cross mountain, Inter Province transport
2. Agricultural Functions such as rainmaking, aerial survey and monitoring, crop dusting
3. Private Users for executive transport, charter operations, recreational flying, skydiving, tourist transport
4. Promotion of forestry development through aerial reforestation of all bald and denuded mountains, monitoring of illegal loggers and log transport, and firebombing of forest fires
5. Protection of mineral resources through aerial monitoring of large mines and mineral transport
6. Environmental monitoring and protection of  rivers, bays, mine tailings, etc.
7. Government Functions such as liaison, VIP transport, aerial project monitoring
8. Export product to other developing countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia
9. Base for aviation industry development

Required for parallel development is the capability building for the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) for Philippine aircraft certification. This is necessary for the AirPino MPLA to be viable commercially. The CAAP will also have to enter into bilateral treaties with its corresponding organization in other countries to enable the export of Philippine-made aircraft to these countries.

Design Requirements

1. Designed for easy production and easy maintenance using modular construction
2. Plane configured to expedite exports to other developing countries
3. Use of composites for technology expertise development, including possible use of laminated bamboo
4. P10 million per unit bare cost objective
5. Adoption of low cost COTS technology for augmented VFR such as GPS, electro-optics, IPad
6. Preparation for other model configurations
7. 5 seats plus cargo minimum size, to 8 seats

Boeing 787 - Seattle to North Charleston Air Service For Durability Test

 Boeing’s fourth flight-test 787 flies past Mount Rainier early 2011 (Boeing graphics)

The Boeing 787 composite material design is very new at its size scale. Though composites have been used in Formula 1 cars, business jets, the Space Shuttle and other applications, the Boeing 787 is the first to use it at this size scale, and in barrel configuration.

The Boeing 787 is the first to composites as the de Havilland Comet was the first with aluminum, though aluminum-use in similar size aircraft was more widespread before the introduction of the de Havilland Comet, mostly in bombers. On composites, we also had the American B-2 bomber though not in a tube with wings configuration.

Being 787 Dreamliner No. 23 arrives in San Antonio for upgrades (Boeing graphics)

Most of us are quite familiar with the de Havilland Comet's history and we hope and pray that the Boeing 787 Dreamliner will not follow the same pattern. It behooves the Boeing company to extensively and intensively test the durability of the Boeing 787, not only for its commercial survival but more for the safety of millions of future Boeing 787 passengers. But this is not to say that the Boeing 787 and other future mostly composite airliners like the Airbus A-350 are not safe. It is just making it more safe with more tests.

Boeing company should go beyond the FAA certification process by using the retained flight-test Boeing 787's,  like the Boeing 737 is utilized. It can use the retained flight-test Boeing 787's as an Air Ferry Service between Seattle, North Charleston, Chicago and other Boeing locations on a multi trip per day basis. Boeing can either form an airline, or lease it to an airline that will provide the service.

First 787 for delivery to launch customer ANA takes off 19Jan2011 Paine Field (Flight Global graphics)

By doing this, Boeing can collect a lot of data that can be used to optimize further the Boeing 787 design at a no-cost even profitable basis. These tests might even prove the Boeing 787 as a Boeing 757 replacement, and as proof for the use of the design on the future Boeing 797, the Boeing 737 replacement.

Will Embraer go B R I ?

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As Bombardier and COMAC try to find ways to have a synergestic partnership in "Bombardier and Comac work to define parameters of new tie-up"

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/03/31/354988/bombardier-and-comac-work-to-define-parameters-of-new.html

Embraer might be left out in the cold.

However, there are other possible partners that Embraer might court specifically the Russians and the Indians.

With Russia, it may follow the Bombardier-COMAC model with an E-jet/MS-21 cooperation-integration.

With India, it may do an E-jet New Generation in a joint development with an upsize of the Indian RTA project.

What's sure is the end of the Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the single aisle airliner sector.

Fokker 100 Next Generation - Prospects

Assuming that the 24,541 kgs Fokker 100 has a more weight efficient structure than the current 28,080 kgs Embraer 190, it might have good potential for a refresh and new production. The Fokker 100's empty weight is also lighter than the 25,100 kg Sukhoi Superjet 100, and the 26,270 kg ARJ21. However, it is heavier than the 23,179 kg CRJ1000 and the planned empty weight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet MRJ-90 of 22,600 kg that is part composite.

Given the above empty weight figures, the Fokker 100NG has the potential to be competitive in its sector even against the newer aircraft designs. As stated in the Fokker 100NG website http://ngaircraft.com/, the planned new aircraft will have

1. New engine - maybe P&W Purepower GTF or GE CF-34 or Rolls-Royce BR725
   
2. Winglet addition
3. New avionics
4. New Interior
5. Additional fuel capacity
   

The above features will be adopted to an existing Fokker 100 aircraft to come out with the prototype Fokker 100NG. This modification process may be offered to existing operators to refresh their fleets.



If ever NG Aircraft will reach the point where they will produce new-build Fokker 100NGs, they may also do the following to make the aircraft more competitive:

1. Aerodynamic cleanups like what Boeing is doing with the B737
   
2. Use of lighter and more durable materials like the Fokker-initiated Glare used in the A380
   

However, expensive new developments will impact negatively the price of new-build Fokker 100NGs.


If ever the Fokker 100NG will enter commercial service, it will be competitive in its market sector. Possible customers are present operators like KLM Cityhopper.

The big disadvantage that the Fokker 100NG has is on the corporate side. After building the Fokker 100NG prototype, it will then have to put online the production system. Then it will need a marketing infrastructure, then the service support. The last is at least in existence now.

EADS may see an opportunity in the Fokker 100NG and use its cash hoard to buy the aircraft company to complete its Airbus portfolio from 100 to 600 passenger capacity.

Boeing 797 Engines > > New-Core GTF; Bigger Fan, GEnxed LEAP-X; New RR Turbofan

Boeing Patented Airliner Design (Boeing graphics)

Given the planned 2019 entry to service of the Boeing 797, assuming that the Boeing Company will proceed with its development, the three main engine companies have more than 5 years to come out with new engines that will be more efficient than the engines of the upcoming A320NEO, MS-21, Comac 919, Bombardier C300, and Mitsubishi Regional Jet.

This will give an advantage to the Boeing 797 initially, that which can be later integrated to the earlier introduced airliners.

The three main engine companies can do the following:

1. Pratt & Whitney - new turbine core for its GTF series
2. G.E. - larger fans for its LEAP-X with GEnx technology integration
3. Rolls-Royce - a new 3 spool engine with large fans

Boeing Patented Airliner Design (Boeing graphics)

Given this scenario, I will not be surprised if the A320NEO will become the A360, an all new design. It can be similar to what transpired with the A350, that became the A350XWB, but now just called the A350. Airbus has at least 2 years to change its mind.

Boeing 797 - Ideas For Boeing 737 Replacement

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The objective in this exercise is to have the all-new Boeing 797 leapfrog the proposed A-320 NEO with a 15% better profitability.

This will have to mean lower costs and higher revenues.

On the cost side, the Boeing 797 will need

1. Lower fuel costs
2. Lower maintenance costs
3. Lower acquisition costs

On the revenue side, the Boeing 797 will need

1. Cover more city pairs
2. Cover a wider capacity range
3. More attractive to passengers
4. More attractive to buyers

To lower the fuel costs, the Boeing 797 will need to have a more fuel efficient engine. Possibilities are

1. A next version of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine with a newer core, and optimized gear and turbofan sections.
   
2. A GE engine adopted from the B787 GEnX.
3. A new Rolls Royce 3 spool engine.

The Boeing 797 must use a next generation engine to ones to be used in the planned A320NEO, Comac 919 and MS-21. These new version engines can also later be retrofitted to the other competing airliners but the Boeing 797 will have a headstart.

Better aerodynamics is a given for the Boeing 797 that will integrate lessons from the Boeing 787 and Boeing 747-8 developments. It can also use the latest in computational aerodynamics using the latest in computing power. This is based on the assumption that the Boeing 797 will be the traditional cylinder with wings design.

However, if the Boeing 797 will introduce a new body/wing configuration, it will have to tackle the aerodynamic and other optimization that such a new design will entail. The placement of the Boeing 797 engine is very important based on the possible availability of the very economical open rotor engine by the late 2020's. The Boeing 797 design must be easily adoptable to an open rotor engine, while being optimized for a turbofan engine with which it will initially come out with.

The Boeing 797 will use the latest lighter materials such as composites and the new aluminum alloys. As a result of the success of the Boeing 787's composite materials, the aluminum industry is busy updating their material to remain competitive with the composites. It is important that these new materials must be easy and low cost to maintain given the high availability needs for a high use tempo airliner. This brings opportunities to the Boeing 797 and the upcoming single aisles. The A320 NEO update will surely take advantage of this development as well.

The composite's advantage over aluminum is that it is more amenable to automation and mechanization. This has the possibility of lowering the cost, and increasing the rate of production.

As a high production rate airliner, the Boeing 797 will benefit immensely from a more efficient production system. If it will be a mostly composite airliner like the Boeing 787, the production system will be very amenable to more mechanization and automation that may lead to lower production costs. The lower production costs can mean either a more competitive Boeing 797 price or higher margins or both.

As a high turn-around airliner the Boeing 797 must possess a new efficient gate to gate avionics system that will minimize gate to gate flight times.

Better passenger contentment can also be assured by improving further the Boeing 737 Sky Interior with wider seats and aisle, and better seat placement and configuration.


Airbus can always do an A350XWB move with their A320NEO if it feels that the NEO cannot hack it. It may be a better investment for the EADS cash hoard.

A Low Cost And Low Risk Approach To KC-46A Development

KC-46A refuels B-1B

Boeing seems to have really squeezed its profit margins on its winning KC-46A bid for the USAF tanker competition. With this win, Boeing has effectively:

1. Thwarted the entry of Airbus to a U.S. production base, for now
2. Extended the production life of the B-767 for possibly 300 more aircraft
3. Opened up the opportunity for a B-767NG version based on the KC-46A for passenger and freighter versions
   

For Boeing to convert this win into profits, it must implement a low cost and low risk approach to the KC-46A development.

To do this, Boeing can just USAF-milspeced the Italian Air Force KC-767A tanker. Based on published reports, Boeing needs to modify this Italian model with, among others:

1. Add winglets that is already being done on commercial B-767 versions. The winglets may possibly be also configured to alleviate further the flutter in the Italian Air Force KC-767A.
2. Install a B-787 style cockpit panel which can mean upgrading the B-767-400 cockpit panel to the B-787 level.
3. Enhanced KC-767A fuel boom. This may be simply an enlargement of the boom fuel line barrel or increase fuel line pressure or both, to deliver higher fuel flow rates.
4. Strengthening the cabin floor with lighter materials.
5. Install defensive systems.

KC-767A tanker for the Italian Air Force

Boeing cannot do a Frankentanker approach on the KC-46A now as the cost and risk are higher. It may do this on an enhanced KC-46A version with new engines, if ever.

After The Tanker Loss, Will Airbus Build An A-350 Assembly Plant In The U.S. ?

Boeing KC-46As

Airbus lost the USAF tanker competition to Boeing's KC-46A, and with it its plans to enter the huge U.S. defense market via a tanker assembly plant in Alabama.

According to media reports, EADS, the mother company of Airbus, is awash in cash. EADS may use this cash hoard to continue its plan of entering the huge U.S. defense market with an A-350 assembly plant maybe also in Alabama.

Airbus A-350

EADS can use the A-350 to compete in the next KC-Y tanker competition that may see the replacement of the KC-10. Although the KC-10 is a relatively young tanker, if this replacement cycle will push through, the A-350 may go against the B-777 or the B-777NG.

Whatever happens in the tanker arena, an A-350 assembly plant in the U.S. may make business sense if the Euro remains strong compared to the dollar, and the A-350 is successful in its order book that the new European plant cannot cope with the demand.

New Airbus A-350 European plant

Such a scenario may convince EADS to forego any protest against the Boeing KC-46A win.

B-767NG From The KC-46A

KC-46A concept

Congratulations Boeing for your KC-46A tanker win!

20 more years for the B-767 line and maybe a 1500 aircraft production total.

This win opens new opportunities for the B-767.

On the military side, it can mean

1. more tanker orders from other countries
   
2. platform for an AWACS replacement
   
3. platform for JSTARS replacement
   
4. Other versions
   

Two KC-767A for the Italian Air Force refueling

On the civilian side, as the 767 and the KC-46A will be produced on a single line, the KC-46A may become the default configuration for a new B-767NG. This can have

1. B-787 style avionics
2. Winglets
3. B-787 style cabin
4. Weight reduction
5. Aerodynamic streamlining
6. Possible GEnX reengining
   

Boeing will surely use the KC-46A development process to reinvigorate the B-767 design, and the production process to come out with a more profitable B-767NG to operate.

Rollout of 1,000th B-767 for ANA

This will be a welcome development for a lot of airlines unable to get into slots in the long B-787 line.

New B-767 production line

And for the air freight companies needing new freighters at the B-767 capacity level.

B-767 Freighter configuration

Making the Boeing 767 More Competitive

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Assuming the order demand is there the 767 must have tweaks as is being done with the 737.

Aside from lowering costs and the resulting price, modifications will make it more competitive.

The winglets had been great and other modifications that are possible are:

1. Aerodynamic tweaks

2. Engine inserts

3. Lightening

4. Cockpit and avionics commonalities with 787

5. New 787/737 style cabin

Is a Boeing - Embraer cooperation in a 130 seater 737NG Replacement Possible

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Both Boeing and Embraer have no airliner that can compete effectively with the Bombardier CSeries. And so with Airbus for that matter except for its proposed but bigger A-320NEO.

Airbus is wooing the Chinese effectively with their A-320 production in China, and so is with Bombardier with its sourcing of the CSeries' fuselage from China.

Boeing may do better by cooperating with Embraer in a new 130 seater 737NG Replacement to compete directly with the Bombardier CSeries. Through this, Boeing can leverage the technology, production and market of Brazil and Latin America.

Boeing can even up the ante by the participation of the Indian aerospace industry and getting an edge in the fast growing Indian airliner sector. Boeing have already a wide and very good relationship with the Japanese aerospace industry, and with the Russian aerospace industry in the DreamLifter 747 conversion.

Why a 130 seater?

1. To compete effectively with the Bombardier CSeries and cover the area where Airbus is weak. 

2. Embraer has no exact model in this capacity.

3. Take advantage of the DC-9/MD-80 replacement cycle.

4. Keep open the option of re-engining the larger 737-800/900 series to cover the 757 replacement cycle.

5. As a B-717 replacement.

Just remember the B-737  started off as a 130 seater in the 1960's and it has grown effectively to a 200 seater and more airliner.

To do this cooperation, Boeing has to effectively woo Embraer as it has had closer historical relationships with the Europeans.

797 (737NG replacement) Ideas

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1. Composite barrel construction for easier and lower cost production, together with weight advantages.

2. Single aisle for better aerodynamics.

3. Improved seats and seating configuration to reduce weight and improve speed of passenger loading.

4. Study UAV technology-enhanced single pilot to reduce pilot requirements while maintaining safety levels.

5. Geared turbofan engines, with engine placement optimized for later open rotor option.

6. Ramp to ramp time minimization using Infotech to increase utilization rates.

7. Cargo loading automation.

747-8 Intercontinental versus A380

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The 747-8 Intercontinental is structurally more efficient than the A380 based on empty weight per passenger.

Boeing completes body join on first 747-8 Intercontinental

The 747-8 Intercontinental has newer wings

747-8 in final assembly in Everett

The 747-8 Intercontinental has newer engines

GEnx engines installed on the first Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental

The 747-8 Intercontinental has newer avionics

The 747-8 Intercontinental occupies a different passenger capacity niche between the 777-300ER and the A380

Boeing will put it to commercial service by 2012 after a long flight test period marred by delays caused by enginners being reassigned to the 787 program and the usual surprises in tests.

It will be a successful and profitable plane by 2025 after 200 orders and deliveries. It will remain the largest commercial freighter and monopolize this sector.

How about the A380?

Qantas A380 in Hamburg with Beluga in background

It will also be a successful airliner with 400 deliveries in 20 years. Its profitability is doubtful within the same 20 year period but will be at the end of its production.

For the A380 to be optimized, its fuselage has to be extended to fully utilize its large wing size. This can only be done if the first version will be profitable.

And then the Blended Body Wings will start coming, maybe with the 777 replacement.

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